Donate | Profile | Register | Preferences | FAQ/Help | Logout
ninersworld | warriorsworld | sharksworld

[ Thread ] [ Post Followup ] [ Search Forums ] [ Giants ]
Jayson Stark:.....Matt Cain for Prince Fielder
User account number (aid):
3
Posted by Calvin and Hobbs on 2008-09-04 19:32:50

Ready to Rumble
• Deadline, schmeadline: Now that the Pedro Alvarez controversy has raised the issue of MLB improperly extending deadlines, how come nobody has investigated what happened at the trading deadline?

There has been nonstop buzz in the industry for weeks that MLB extended the 4 p.m. ET July 31 trading deadline by as much as a half-hour to accommodate the Red Sox, Pirates and Dodgers in completing the Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay trade. Of course, Scott Boras wouldn't make an issue of that, because he needed to get his esteemed client, Manny, to a new destination.


• Fresh Prince: During one of our recent chats, a reader proposed a fascinating trade for this winter -- Prince Fielder to the Giants for Matt Cain. The Brewers will need an ace to replace CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. The Giants need power. It ain't crazy. So can it happen? Dubious, but possible.

First off, according to an official of one club that has already felt out the Brewers on their tentative offseason game plan, Fielder is "definitely someone they'll listen on. They told us they're willing to listen on him, Bill Hall, [J.J.] Hardy and [Rickie] Weeks in the right [i.e., humongous] deal."

Second, it's clear the Giants have deployed their scouts all over baseball in the second half looking for power at the infield corners. And Fielder is one of the mashers believed to be high on their list.

OK, now here's the biggest hang-up: Giants GM Brian Sabean has told clubs repeatedly that he has no interest in busting up the best thing his team has going for it -- the power 1-2 combo of Cain and Tim Lincecum. But if it meant a realistic chance to deal for Prince Fielder, wouldn't he have to rewrite his script?

"Brian has been saying he won't trade one of those two pitchers for anyone," said one NL executive. "But if you're asking me, he ought to reconsider. If they want to get that kind of player, they're going to have to trade Matt Cain to get it."



• For whom the Beltre toils: One more corner bat the Giants appear to be targeting is Seattle's Adrian Beltre.

"Beltre is playing really well right now, and he's playing hard," said one scout, "maybe because he thinks it will help get him out of there. I know the Giants have done a lot of work on this guy. They're looking at him hard."

But to deal for Beltre, the Giants would have to overcome the same issue -- trading away someone like Cain. There's no way to know for certain whether interim GM Lee Pelekoudas or someone else will be making the decisions in Seattle. But every team we talk to about the Giants says it would want a starting pitcher back in any significant deal. And clubs that have spoken with Pelekoudas say that if it's up to him, he "won't let Beltre go without getting a quality pitcher back."


• Standing Pat: There has been an outbreak of optimistic reports out of Philadelphia about the likelihood of the Phillies being able to re-sign Pat Burrell this winter. But our take is: Not so fast.

Burrell clearly wants to stick around. And the Phillies appear to realize that if he leaves, their free-agent options are messy. But as they mull their offer to Burrell, they have a major disadvantage that other teams wouldn't face:

The biggest concern all National League teams would have about Burrell is whether he would be able to play defense through the life of a three-year or four-year deal, in a league with no DH. But only the Phillies would have to worry that he would become a 10-and-5 man about seven weeks into Year 2 of any contract -- meaning he could block a deal to the American League.

So while the Phillies are more motivated to sign him now than they were a few months ago, there is no indication they have wavered from their belief that they can't afford to give him more than two guaranteed years. And there undoubtedly would be longer deals out there elsewhere. So this negotiation will be a real test of just how much he really wants to stay.

• Take the Stairs: One of the least-talked-about ripple effects of the Phillies' trade last week for Matt Stairs is that he's not a rent-a-player. He's signed for next year, too, at $1 million. So why would the Phillies deal for someone like that? It's uncertainty about Burrell and their 2009 outfield that convinced them it was worth at least adding Stairs to their 2009 inventory.

Stairs will be 41 next year. So no NL team would view him as a regular -- or even a platoon outfielder anymore. But if Burrell exits, the Phillies would be more likely to piece together outfield at-bats among a bunch of players than make a major free-agent run at somebody like Adam Dunn or Milton Bradley. So they're not ruling out anybody or anything right now.

• Can you CC clearly now? Now that the Indians, incredibly, have reeled off nearly the same record since the CC Sabathia trade (30-20) as the Brewers (30-19), the most-asked question in baseball is: Where would the Indians be if they'd kept Sabathia instead of trading him?

So we posed that very question to their vice president for baseball operations, Chris Antonetti. And one of the first things he did was to head for the ESPN.com standings page. He then dialed up the date of that trade (July 7) and reported that our own site (via the geniuses at coolstandings.com) was projecting back then that the chances of the Indians making the playoffs was 0.7 percent. Apparently, they didn't think that was too good.

"I think it's human nature to go back and retroactively look at different decisions," Antonetti said. "But in life, you're left to make those decisions with the information you have at hand at the time. And the information we had at hand at the time was that our record wasn't good (37-51), and we had a number of key guys on the disabled list, and we just weren't getting enough performance from the vast majority of our players. So when we evaluated our chances of making the playoffs at the time, we just didn't think that was a very realistic possibility."

And it's tough to disagree. Even if Sabathia had gone 9-0 in Cleveland over these last eight weeks, remember, that doesn't mean the Indians would have picked up nine games in the standings. In fact, Anthony Reyes -- a pitcher they then turned around and traded for before the trading deadline -- has a 2.01 ERA as an Indian. We can't even be sure CC would have beaten that.

• Ask for a Reyes: Speaking of Reyes, we're not sure how the Mets missed trading for him, since they now lead the league in Reyeses (Jose, Al and Argenis). But you might be shocked to learn that the Reyes they didn't trade for -- Anthony -- has been the third-best deadline acquisition among all starting pitchers dealt before the deadline.

In fact, Reyes' 2.01 ERA in August was the eighth-best in baseball, behind a group of guys it's possible you've heard of: Sabathia (1.12), Francisco Liriano (1.23), Tim Lincecum (1.27), Brett Myers (1.65), Rich Harden (1.82), Cliff Lee (1.86) and Johan Santana (1.91).

Back in St. Louis, Reyes didn't mesh with Cardinals pitching guru Dave Duncan's two-seam sinker philosophy. But now that Reyes is back to riding his four-seam fastball up in the strike zone in Cleveland, he looks more like the prospect he was once purported to be as a Cardinal.

"He's your classic four-seam pitcher," said one scout. "He could command it a little better, probably. But he's rounded into shape. He's got that power-pitcher mentality. He has a good changeup. And I think he'll get his breaking ball going eventually. I don't know whether other people think they missed the boat on him. But I feel like we did."

• Hanley being Hanley: Hanley Ramirez is as fun to watch as any player alive. But he's also leading the major leagues in errors over the last three seasons (with 70). And clubs that have spoken with the Marlins say his lapses in defensive concentration have aggravated his coaching staff and front office enough that they could do something this winter that they've always resisted -- talk about moving him to another position.

The most likely options are third base or center field. But it's also possible the Marlins could give him one more chance, with the old shape-up-or-grab-a-new-glove ultimatum. There may not be a more talented player in the whole sport, but "this guy needs to elevate his focus," said one scout. "No doubt."

• "What might have been" dept.: You hear lots of people say now that they aren't all that surprised by Cliff Lee's turnaround. But where were those people last year, when Lee's name was being dangled as potential trade fodder? The Indians had a few nibbles. But we keep hearing that the deal they contemplated longest and hardest was Lee for Carlos Quentin. Imagine that.

"I guess the big decision," laughed one AL executive, "was which was more valuable -- the MVP or the Cy Young -- because it was obvious then that's what they'd be this year. Wasn't it?"


• "What might have been" dept., Take II: Then there's Ty Wigginton. The Astros couldn't possibly have been more interested in unloading him earlier this year. So of course, he then went out last month and hit 12 homers, tying the high by any player in the big leagues in any calendar month this year.

"Anybody could have had him," said one NL exec. "All you had to do was ask. Just goes to prove again that sometimes, when you think you know what you know, you don't know anything."

• Decision time: Very few teams face a more challenging winter than the Braves. But one NL executive says their biggest question will be figuring out what happened to Jeff Francoeur, a guy staggering through nearly a 150-point OPS drop.

"I don't think you go from being that productive to being a total zero," the exec said of Francoeur. "But if he has the feeling they don't believe in him anymore, or they truly don't believe in him anymore, I think they have to see if they can deal him for pitching."

• Feel a draft: One subtle ripple effect of the Pedro Alvarez grievance is that it just might lead to a worldwide draft. How do we connect those dots? Try to follow us:

The longtime alibi at MLB for not fixing the draft is that the union would never agree to negotiate, because it claimed the draft wasn't covered by collective bargaining. And why wasn't it covered? Because these weren't major leaguers being drafted.

But now that Scott Boras has pressured the union to file a grievance over MLB's alleged mishandling of this draft in general and Alvarez in particular, MLB might well respond by jumping on this grievance as proof that the union now agrees that the draft falls under its jurisdiction after all.

Whether the union buys it or not, you can bet the next labor discussions (still three years away) will include extensive talk about a formal slotting system, plus a worldwide draft. MLB currently has a committee, led by former Braves GM John Schuerholz, studying all those issues.

• Upon further review: One more replay note: One of the most-asked questions about the new replay system is why the umpires' crew chief determines when to go to the video, instead of an MLB replay official, either on site or in New York.

"What I'd like to see," said an official of one club, "is a system where you'd have somebody at every park, and when there's a mistake so blatant, the umpire would have a beeper in his pocket and the guy would say, 'It's wrong. Let's get it right.' "

That, in fact, was close to the original proposal. But the umpires protested and lobbied for the crew chief to make that call. Now not everybody is happy with the way it turned out. But one dissenter says he was told by an MLB official it will all work out fine -- "since everyone knows there's now replay in the building, the crew chiefs will look like idiots if they don't use it."

• Who needs a trophy? Finally, we understand the impact CC Sabathia has made on the Brewers these last eight weeks. And we think there ought to be some kind of award to recognize that impact. We just don't know what.

We made that observation to a longtime NL executive the other day, and he couldn't help but laugh.

"I think CC's award," he quipped, "will come after the season."

Yeah, and the green wrapping paper will only cost about $140 million.

Thread:

You must be registered and logged in to post. Please select an option:

Login with existing account
Create a new account

[ Thread ] [ Post Followup ] [ Search Forums ] [ Giants ]